Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.024572 0.027932 0.031599 0.035900 0.040809 0.046243 0.052719
2025-02-16 0.019004 0.023521 0.028897 0.035776 0.044365 0.054758 0.068326
2025-02-23 0.016083 0.021080 0.027385 0.035946 0.047308 0.061923 0.082238
2025-03-02 0.013801 0.018950 0.025761 0.035469 0.049012 0.067329 0.094145
2025-03-09 0.012460 0.017813 0.025193 0.036164 0.052155 0.074759 0.109396
2025-03-16 0.011077 0.016409 0.024035 0.035803 0.053634 0.079849 0.121693
2025-03-23 0.010338 0.015827 0.023945 0.036916 0.057293 0.088366 0.139896
2025-03-30 0.009159 0.014441 0.022493 0.035765 0.057305 0.091254 0.149532
2025-04-06 0.008306 0.013462 0.021550 0.035275 0.058245 0.095595 0.161840
2025-04-13 0.007395 0.012295 0.020184 0.033941 0.057627 0.097272 0.169761
2025-04-20 0.007073 0.012059 0.020299 0.035059 0.061203 0.106243 0.191139
2025-04-27 0.006753 0.011793 0.020330 0.036019 0.064566 0.115122 0.213231
2025-05-04 0.006458 0.011553 0.020399 0.037083 0.068281 0.125095 0.238657
2025-05-11 0.005984 0.010951 0.019780 0.036846 0.069593 0.130832 0.256735
2025-05-18 0.005621 0.010514 0.019413 0.037027 0.071686 0.138194 0.278733
2025-05-25 0.005203 0.009937 0.018731 0.036535 0.072409 0.142958 0.295974
2025-06-01 0.004977 0.009704 0.018677 0.037252 0.075584 0.152838 0.324846
2025-06-08 0.004642 0.009227 0.018106 0.036879 0.076495 0.158199 0.344661
2025-06-15 0.004504 0.009131 0.018275 0.038027 0.080667 0.170706 0.381438
2025-06-22 0.004133 0.008526 0.017369 0.036840 0.079745 0.172282 0.393848
2025-06-29 0.003862 0.008107 0.016808 0.036335 0.080247 0.176973 0.413878
2025-07-06 0.003533 0.007538 0.015886 0.034959 0.078677 0.176902 0.422665
2025-07-13 0.003455 0.007503 0.016096 0.036113 0.082950 0.190470 0.465802